By: Saleem Khan – Chief Data & Analytics Officer – Pole Star Global
Follow-up to Saleem Khan’s earlier analysis in The Maritime Executive: “Stemming the Tide of War Insurance Costs”.
Summary: The maritime industry’s path forward demands continuous intelligence, flexible contracting, and recognition that regional ceasefires don’t guarantee unified de-escalation across Middle Eastern waters.
The maritime industry faces a paradox this week: Yemen’s Houthi rebels signaled a cessation of Red Sea attacks following the Gaza ceasefire. Around the same time, Iran executed its first vessel seizure in months, seizing the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker Talara in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday. These two developments underscore a critical reality: regional maritime security remains fragmented, unpredictable, and expensive.
After 690 days of Houthi attacks that killed nine mariners and sank four vessels, the conditional ceasefire offers cautious optimism. Yet Suez Canal traffic remains at historic lows, averaging just 36 vessels daily in 2025 compared to 74 in 2023. Insurance premiums tell the story; insurers aren’t convinced. Red Sea war-risk rates remain elevated despite the announcement, as underwriters demand proof through multiple safe transits before reducing coverage costs that currently add tens of thousands of dollars per voyage.
Iran’s seizure of the Talara, carrying 30,000 tons of petrochemicals through waters handling 20% of global oil trade, signals Tehran’s willingness to reassert control in the Strait of Hormuz. The incident prompted war-risk premiums in the Middle East Gulf to double within days, while hull and machinery insurance jumped 60%.
Impact on Safe Passage: Top 3 Implications
- Bifurcated Geographic Risk: The Red Sea may experience gradual normalization while Persian Gulf risks intensify, forcing carriers to reassess route optimization strategies across two distinct zones simultaneously.
- Insurance Market Volatility: War-risk premiums will remain fluid and regionally specific, with 24-hour quote validities and 96-hour cancellation clauses now standard practice, eliminating predictable cost structures for voyage planning.
- Extended Cape Routing Persistence: Despite the Houthi pause, major carriers will maintain Cape of Good Hope diversions through at least Q2 2026, sustaining 10-14 day transit delays and suppressing Suez Canal revenues while creating potential freight rate collapse when capacity eventually returns.
Stakeholder Actions
Fleet Owners: Implement dynamic voyage insurance strategies with multiple underwriters rather than single-carrier contracts; leverage real-time intelligence platforms for routing decisions that balance premium costs against time-charter economics.
Cargo Insurers: Adopt granular, passage-level risk assessment using vessel ownership transparency data and beneficial owner verification to differentiate premium pricing; consider fleet-based bundling arrangements for operators with strong compliance records.
Port Authorities: Enhance berth scheduling flexibility to accommodate last-minute routing changes; coordinate with maritime security agencies on threat intelligence sharing protocols for vessels calling from high-risk transit zones.
Vessel Crews: Verify that comprehensive war-risk coverage explicitly includes both Red Sea and Persian Gulf waters before transit; maintain heightened vigilance for GPS jamming and AIS interference, particularly near the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb chokepoints.