Before looking at the 2026 hurricane season in the North Pacific, a look at the 2025 hurricane season is in order. The 2025 North Pacific hurricane season occurred during generally weak La Nina conditions (NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center 2026). The Eastern North Pacific had 18 named storms, of which 11 became hurricanes. Of the 11 hurricanes, four became major hurricanes. This is an above normal number of named systems and hurricanes, but a normal number of major hurricanes. The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) was near normal (National Hurricane Center 2026; NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information 2026).
Eastern & Central North Pacific
The Central North Pacific had four named systems, of which three were hurricanes. Of the three hurricanes, two became major hurricanes. The total amount of named systems, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and total ACE was above normal (Central Pacific Hurricane Center 2026).
Figure 1. Eastern and Central Pacific Regions. (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information 2026)
| 2025 Central Pacific Summary | |||||
| Named Storms (vs 1991-2020 Normal) | Hurricanes (vs 1991-2020 Normal) | Major Hurricanes (vs 1991-2020 Normal) | Total ACE (x104 kt2) (% Difference of 1991-2020 Normal) | Total Direct Deaths | Total U.S. Damagee ($million) |
| 4 (+1) | 3 (+2) | 2 (+2) | 26.4 (+11% ) | 0 | 0 |
Figure 2. Central Pacific Summary. (Central Pacific Hurricane Center 2026)
Western North Pacific
In the Western North Pacific there were 28 named storms, of which 17 became typhoons. Of the 17 typhoons, five became major typhoons. The total number of named systems and typhoons was normal, but the total number of major typhoons and ACE was below normal (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information 2026).
Figure 3. Western Pacific Region. (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information 2026)
The 2026 north Pacific Hurricane Season will be heavily influenced by the developing El Nino pattern
Figure 4. El Nino Influence. (Bell 2014)
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, but is treading toward a positive state.
Figure 5. El Nino 5 Year Trends. (Climate Prediction Center 2026)
A positive ENSO indicates the El Nino conditions have developed. After El Nino conditions develop, it’s expected that the conditions will persist through the rest of the year (Climate Prediction Center 2026). The impact of El Nino is conditions will be favourable for an above normal hurricane season in the eastern Pacific (Bell 2014). The strength of El Nino is uncertain with a near equal chance of it being moderate to very strong (Climate Prediction Center 2026).
Figure 6. ENSO Strength Probabilities. (Climate Prediction Center 2026)
Tropical Cyclones
During an El Nino year, an above normal amount of tropical cyclones have been observed in the western and eastern Pacific Ocean and the 2026 season appears to be no exception (Bell 2014; Chan 2000). Furthermore, the latest ECMWF data indicates that an above normal number of tropical cyclones are expected in both western and eastern Pacific Ocean.
Figure 7. ECMWF 2026 Tropical Storm Frequency Forecast
Figure 8. ECMWF 2026 Hurricane/Typhoon Frequency Forecast
Sea Surface Temperature
In the eastern Pacific the sea surface temperature (SST) is expected to be 1-2C above normal during from August to October, which is the peak of hurricane season in the basin. As a result, this above normal SST supports above normal tropical cyclone formation. In the western Pacific the tropical cyclone signal is more complicated as SST anomalies in the western Pacific are more varied. For the August to October period, South China Sea SST anomalies of 0.2-0.5C are expected on the eastern side of the South China Sea north of northern Borneo and 0.5-1.0C anomalies are expected on the western side of the South China Sea and south of northern Borneo.
In the East China Sea, SST anomalies of 0.2-1.0C are expected. The warm SST in these regions support increased tropical cyclone development. However, the SST signal to the west of the Philippines show a large area of near normal SST and an area of SST that will are 0.2-0.5C below normal. This area of below normal SST reduces confidence for an above normal amount of typhoons, but does not rule out the possibility of an above normal amount of typhoons.
Figure 9. ECMWF Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Forecast
Overall, based on the strong signal for at least a moderate El Niño to develop this summer and above normal SST in the Pacific Ocean, there is a high likelihood of an above normal tropical cyclone season in both the eastern and western Pacific. We cannot determine the impacts on land at this time, but it takes only a single landfalling system to cause devastation. Out at sea, a similar story plays out where a single system can threaten a vessel. Pole Star Global’s FleetWeather team can mitigate this risk by providing 24/7 weather routing, voyage optimisation, and charter party compliance services, backed by over 50 years of maritime meteorology experience. Contact us at [email protected] to discuss weather routing and voyage support for the season ahead.
References
Bell, G., 2014: Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the hurricane season | NOAA Climate.gov. ENSO Blog. Accessed 21 April 2024, http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/impacts-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-hurricane-season.
Central Pacific Hurricane Center, 2026: 2025 Central Pacific Hurricane Season. Accessed 3 May 2026, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2025&basin=cpac.
Chan, J. C. L., 2000: Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific Associated with El Niño and La Niña Events. Journal of Climate, 13, 2960–2972, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2960:TCAOTW>2.0.CO;2.
Climate Prediction Center, 2026: EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION. Accessed 16 May 2026, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf.
National Hurricane Center, 2026: 2025 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season. Accessed 16 May 2026, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2025&basin=epac.
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2026: Monthly Tropical Cyclones Report for Annual 2025. Accessed 3 May 2026, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/tropical-cyclones/202513.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, 2026: Cold & Warm Episodes by Season. Accessed 16 May 2026, https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/.