The 2026 North Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with activity statistically peaking on September 10. Tropical cyclones are most likely to develop across the North Atlantic Ocean basin during this period. Early forecasts point to a near-average to slightly below-average season, driven largely by the anticipated development of El Niño conditions. However, anomalously warm Atlantic sea-surface temperatures introduce a competing influence that adds uncertainty to those projections. Seasonal forecasts do not predict individual storm tracks or impacts. Instead, they provide probabilistic assessments based on large-scale climate signals.
2025 Season
Figure 1: 2025 North Atlantic Tropics Season
The 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season was unusually slow to begin but ended as a slightly above average season. A total of 13 named storms formed, including 5 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. This lies around climatological averages, but overall energy (ACE) was above normal (132.6). This is due to the strength and longevity of several storms (CO State). Three hurricanes reached Category 5 intensity (Erin, Humberto, and Melissa), tying for the second most in a single Atlantic season on record. Despite a slow start and an active La Niña weather pattern, the 2025 North Atlantic tropics season will be remembered as an active year.
What Will Influence This 2026 Season
Moving into May 2026, it is apparent that the setup for this year’s tropics season is very different from the last. When trying to forecast an upcoming hurricane season, the first thing forecasters look at is the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. This is a natural climate pattern centered in the tropical Pacific Ocean that affects weather patterns around the globe, and even hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
ENSO can be characterized in three phases:
- El Niño: When sea surface temperatures (SST) in the central and eastern Pacific are warmer than average.
- La Niña: When SST in the central and eastern Pacific are cooler than average.
- Neutral: When SST temperatures are close to average.
Figures 2 & 3: Impacts of El Niño and La Niña
El Niño and La Niña conditions across the tropical Pacific have an inverted relationship regarding hurricane formation in the North Atlantic. An active La Niña climatologically reduces wind shear across the lower latitudes of the North Atlantic, which makes environmental conditions more favorable for tropical cyclones. Inversely, an active El Niño, results in increased wind shear across those same waters. Wind shear is commonly known for inhibiting tropical cyclone development by changing wind speed and direction with height above the surface.
ENSO Forecast for 2026 Tropics Season
Sourcing the latest ENSO evolution forecast produced by the Climate Prediction Center and NCEP, the La Niña conditions that have been present over the tropical Pacific over the last year have gradually diminished and ENSO-neutral conditions have developed. These ENSO-neutral conditions have an 80% chance to persist through April-July. However, this shifts towards a 61% chance of El Niño conditions being present for the period between May-July.
Figure 4: Mar 25 – April 22 Sea-Surface Temperature Anomalies
Referencing Figure 4, over the last 4 weeks across the central and eastern tropical Pacific, sea-surface temperature anomalies continue to warm. This warming is not restricted to only the surface. Referencing Figure 5, sub-surface temperature anomalies are warming at an even greater rate.
Figure 5: Apr 23 Subsurface Temperature Anomalies
The CPC’s probabilistic outlook through November-January (Figure 6) shows an overwhelming confidence in El Niño ENSO conditions during the peak of this year’s tropics season and suggests that this pattern persists through the second half of this year. It would be safe to assume that somewhat unfavorable conditions will occur at times across the tropical North Atlantic. In turn, these conditions could inhibit tropical cyclone development and lead to a less active tropics season.
Figure 6: NOAA CPC ENSO Probabilities
The “ASO” columns correspond to the peak of hurricane season, and indicate a 90% chance of an active El Niño during that time.
Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) in the Tropical North Atlantic
Figure 7: Apr 26 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
Atlantic SSTs have remained anomalously warm in recent years, and this holds true again for 2026 (Figure 7). The waters of the Gulf of America and Caribbean Sea are anywhere between 0-3 degrees F warmer than climatological averages. These above normal SST’s for the North Atlantic result in the following:
- Increased latent heat availability
- Enhanced convection
- Support for rapid intensification of storms
As a result, even during an active El Niño, warmer than average SST’s can result in competing influences against each other. Even in suppressed seasons, warm SSTs can allow tropical cyclones to form and to intensify quickly.
How Do They Play a Part? Subtropical Highs and Saharan Dust
A synoptic pattern that complicates any year’s tropical season forecast is the placement of the Bermuda/Azores High. This semi-permanent high pressure varies in strength and meanders across the subtropical latitudes of the North Atlantic, with deviations to the west and east (Figure 8)
Figure 8: Azores High across eastern subtropical Atlantic
Figure 9: Saharan Dust Layer June 21, 2018
The strength and location of this subtropical high directly affect the easterly trade winds between the latitudes of 10N and 20N. A stronger and broader subtropical high enhances easterly trade winds by increasing the pressure gradient between the high and the Equatorial Trough. Stronger trade winds can transport dry, stable air from western Africa. Periodically, these stronger trade winds can pick up large amounts of Saharan dust and transport it across the tropical North Atlantic, significantly hindering tropical cyclone development during those time periods.
Figure 9 from June 21st, 2018, is a great example of a strong subtropical ridge west of the Iberian Peninsula pulling dry, dust-filled air over the eastern half of the tropical Atlantic. The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season is tied for the 3rd least active season (ACE score) over the last 10 years (CO State).
What Will Happen This 2026 Tropics Season?
With the tropics season for the North Atlantic rapidly approaching, major forecasters in the field are suggesting a near average to slightly below average season:
- Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project: approximately 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes
- AccuWeather: 11–16 named storms, 4–7 hurricanes, 2–4 major hurricanes
- North Carolina State University: 12-15 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 2-3 major hurricanes
Pole Star Global predicts 13-15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) in the North Atlantic this year.
Early outlooks for the 2026 hurricane season suggest near average to below average activity, largely due to the anticipated development of the aforementioned El Niño conditions. However, anomalously warm Atlantic waters and ongoing climate variability introduce uncertainty into these projections. Moving into May, there is plenty of uncertainty that remains for this year’s tropics season. How strong will the predicted El Niño be? How warm will the tropical Atlantic be during peak season, and to what depths does that warmth reach?
Experts in the field agree that the 2026 season will be a complex balance between the suppressive and enhancing factors of an active El Niño and anomalously warm SST’s in the North Atlantic. While an active El Niño can reduce overall storm frequency, warm SSTs can also allow for increased probability of rapid intensification within allowable environments.
This duality emphasizes the key limitation of seasonal forecasts: total storm counts do not directly correlate with impact. Last year’s tropics season resulted in only one U.S. landfall, with all other tropical cyclones curving into the open North Atlantic. Even during a slow tropics season, major impacts can occur with landfalling hurricanes and the increased frequency of rapid-intensification occurring near landfalls.
Finally, the placement and strength of the subtropical high and the amount of Saharan dust across the main tropical development region is difficult to forecast this far in advance. However, these factors will assuredly play a role in determining whether we experience a more or less active tropics season. These will have to be monitored throughout the season, so be sure to circle back and check out our mid-season review and predictions for the second half of the season.
As the 2026 tropics season approaches, the difference between a well-routed voyage and a costly one comes down to the quality of the forecast and the expertise behind it. Pole Star Global’s FleetWeather team provides 24/7 weather routing, voyage optimisation and charter party compliance services, backed by over 50 years of maritime meteorology experience. To speak to a member of the team, contact [email protected]