By: Saleem Khan – Chief Data & Analytics Officer – Pole Star Global
Russian shadow fleet oil tankers operating in the Black Sea were identified as extreme-risk vessels weeks before Ukrainian naval drone strikes disabled them in November 2025. The Maritime Transparency Index (MTI) ranked the tankers Kairos and Virat at the extreme low end of the global crude oil tanker population through behavioral analysis, not just sanctions status. This predictive assessment proved accurate ahead of the November attacks.
The Incident
The recent Ukrainian naval drone strikes on Russian-operated tankers Kairos (IMO: 9236004) and Virat (IMO: 9832559) in the Black Sea have highlighted a critical maritime security challenge: identifying high-risk shadow fleet vessels before they become operational threats. Advanced risk assessment tools like the Maritime Transparency Index (MTI) had already flagged both vessels as extreme-risk operators weeks before the November 28 attacks.
On November 28, 2025, Ukraine’s Security Service confirmed that naval drones successfully disabled both Gambian-flagged tankers approximately 28–35 nautical miles off Turkey’s coast. The vessels, sanctioned by the U.S., EU, and UK for sanctions evasion, were empty and en route to Russia’s Novorossiysk terminal to load crude oil. The Kairos caught fire and required evacuation of all 25 crew members, while the Virat suffered critical engine room damage. Ukrainian officials estimate the strikes disabled approximately $70 million in vessel capacity, dealing a significant blow to Russia’s shadow fleet operations.
MTI’s Predictive Assessment
Maritime intelligence analysis reveals that both vessels exhibited classic shadow fleet characteristics long before the attacks. The Maritime Transparency Index, which employs a multi-dimensional scoring methodology across multiple risk factors, had assigned both tankers critically low scores indicating severe operational opacity.
Relative to other crude oil tankers, Kairos and Virat ranked near the absolute bottom of their peer group on the index. This relative positioning is critical: it shows that these vessels were not marginal outliers, but among the worst-performing crude oil tankers globally based on transparency and behavioral risk indicators.
The Virat, scoring just 2.75 overall, well below the crude oil tanker category average of 4.20, displayed alarming patterns of identity obfuscation. MTI analysis documented 20 name changes (scoring 0.00, the lowest possible), four MMSI changes, three flag changes, and 50 AIS gaps averaging over 54 hours each. The vessel’s reporting score of 1.75 reflected zero AIS transmissions during observation periods, indicating deliberate efforts to evade detection. These metrics painted a clear picture of a vessel operating in the shadows.
Similarly, the Kairos received an MTI score of just 2.53, driven by 13 name changes and zero AIS reportings during monitoring. Perhaps most critically, MTI flagged the vessel for five ship-to-ship operations in sensitive zones with maximum risk scores of 0.00, suggesting potential illicit transfer operations. The combination of extreme identity manipulation and high-risk operational behavior placed Kairos firmly in MTI’s highest-risk category.
The Value of Predictive Maritime Intelligence
The attacks underscore the strategic value of sophisticated vessel risk assessment. While sanctions lists identify problematic vessels, advanced scoring systems like MTI provide the granular behavioral analysis needed to understand how and why vessels pose risks. MTI’s methodology goes beyond binary sanctions status, quantifying specific risk behaviors including identity stability, AIS compliance, ship-to-ship transfer patterns, and voyage transparency.
For maritime stakeholders, from insurers and banks to port authorities and defense/ intelligence, this predictive capability is invaluable. Both vessels were clearly identifiable as high-risk operators through systematic behavioral analysis well before they became military targets. Financial institutions providing trade finance, P&I clubs underwriting coverage, and port operators managing vessel calls can leverage these insights to make informed risk decisions.
Industry Implications
As Ukraine expands maritime operations to target shadow fleet vessels throughout the Black Sea, the maritime industry faces increased complexity in vessel vetting. The Virat and Kairos incidents demonstrate that shadow fleet operations carry not just regulatory and reputational risks, but increasingly, operational and security risks.
Both vessels ranked at the bottom of their peer group weeks before the strikes. For those underwriting, financing, or insuring vessel movements, MTI’s behavioral scoring identifies extreme outliers before operational loss occurs.
The key lesson is not that these vessels were sanctioned, but that their behavior signaled extreme risk well before the strikes occurred. For stakeholders underwriting, financing, or permitting vessel movements, the Maritime Transparency Index identifies such outliers through systematic behavioral analysis. Early identification enables action on risk before operational events result in direct financial loss.